Idan ana sa ran farashin karfe zai ci gaba da hauhawa a cikin 2023, bukatar masana'anta ya kamata ya zama sama da na karshen 2022. Vladimir Zapletin/iStock/Getty Images Plus
Dangane da yawancin masu amsawa ga sabon bincikenmu na Sabunta Kasuwar Karfe (SMU), farashin faranti ya yi ƙasa ko kuma yana gab da faɗuwa.Har ila yau, muna ganin mutane da yawa suna hasashen karuwar farashin a cikin watanni masu zuwa.
A matakin mahimmanci, wannan ya faru ne saboda gaskiyar cewa muna ganin ƙaramin karuwa a lokacin jagorar - matsakaicin makonni 0.5 kwanan nan.Misali, matsakaicin lokacin jagora don odar nada mai zafi (HRC) bai wuce makonni 4 ba kuma yanzu yana da makonni 4.4 (duba Hoto 1).
Lokutan jagoranci na iya zama muhimmiyar jagorar alamar canjin farashi.Lokacin jagora na makonni 4.4 baya nufin cewa farashi mafi girma shine nasara-nasara, amma idan muka fara ganin lokacin jagorar HRC a matsakaicin makonni biyar zuwa shida, yuwuwar hauhawar farashin karuwa sosai.
Bugu da kari, masana'anta ba su da yuwuwar yin shawarwari kan farashin ƙasa fiye da na makonnin da suka gabata.Ka tuna cewa tsawon watanni da yawa, kusan duk masana'antun sun shirya don rangwame don tattara oda.
Lokutan jagora sun karu kuma ƙananan masana'antun suna shirye don rufe ma'amaloli bayan kamfanonin Amurka da Kanada sun ba da sanarwar hauhawar farashin dala 60 a tan ($ 3 a nauyi ɗari) mako guda bayan godiya.A kan fig.Hoto 2 yana ba da taƙaitaccen bayani game da tsammanin farashin kafin da bayan sanarwar karuwar farashin.(Lura: Ma'aikatan kwamitin sun fi son yin shawarwari kan farashi mai rahusa kamar yadda jagoran kwamitin Nucor ya sanar da rage $ 140 akan farashin tan.)
Hasashen sun rabu kafin masana'antar masana'antar ta sanar da hauhawar farashin.Kusan 60% sun yi imanin cewa farashin zai kasance a kusan matakin ɗaya.Wannan ba bakon abu bane.Abin mamaki, kusan 20% sun yi imanin za su wuce $ 700 / tonne, kuma wani 20% ko haka suna tsammanin su ragu zuwa $ 500 / tonne.Wannan ya ba ni mamaki a lokacin, saboda $ 500 / tonne yana kusa da karya ko da don haɗin gwiwar shuka, musamman ma lokacin da kuka ƙididdige rangwame ga farashin kwangila.
Tun daga wannan lokacin, taron $700/ton (30%) ya karu, tare da kusan kashi 12% na masu amsa suna tsammanin farashin ya zama $500/ton ko ƙasa cikin watanni biyu.Har ila yau, yana da ban sha'awa cewa wasu farashin hasashe har ma sun fi girman farashin da aka yi niyya na $700/t da wasu masana'antun suka sanar.Wannan sakamakon yana kama da suna tsammanin wani zagaye na karuwar farashin, kuma sun yi imanin cewa wannan ƙarin haɓaka zai sami ci gaba.
Mun kuma ga ɗan ƙaramin canji a farashin a cibiyoyin sabis, yana ba da shawarar ƙarin tasirin farashin masana'anta (duba hoto na 3).A lokaci guda, adadin cibiyoyin sabis ya karu (11%), rahoton farashin yana ƙaruwa.Bugu da kari, kadan (46%) zai rage farashin.
Mun ga irin wannan yanayin a watan Agusta da Satumba bayan jerin hauhawar farashin masana'anta.Daga karshe, sun kasa.Gaskiyar ita ce, mako ba ya haifar da yanayi.A cikin 'yan makonni masu zuwa, zan sa ido a hankali don ganin ko cibiyoyin sabis na ci gaba da nuna sha'awar karuwar farashin.
Hakanan ku tuna cewa jin daɗi na iya zama direban farashi mai mahimmanci a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci.Mun ga babban karuwa na tabbatacce kwanan nan.Duba fig.4.
Lokacin da aka tambaye su ko suna da kyakkyawan fata game da hasashen rabin farkon 2023, 73% suna da kyakkyawan fata.Ganin cewa kwata-kwata na farko yakan kasance cikin aiki, ba sabon abu bane ganin kyakkyawan fata a sabuwar shekara.Kamfanoni suna cike hannun jari kafin lokacin aikin bazara.Bayan bukukuwan, ayyukan motoci sun sake karuwa.Ƙari ga haka, ba za ku ƙara damuwa da harajin hannun jari a ƙarshen shekara ba.
Duk da haka, ban yi tsammanin mutane za su kasance da kyakkyawan fata ba game da kanun labarai game da yaki a Turai, yawan riba da kuma yiwuwar koma bayan tattalin arziki.Yadda za a bayyana shi?Shin kyakkyawan fata ne game da kashe kayan more rayuwa, tanade-tanade na Dokar Rage Haɓaka Haɓaka da ke ƙarfafa ginin iska mai ƙarfi da hasken rana, ko wani abu dabam?Ina so in san abin da kuke tunani.
Abin da ke damun ni kaɗan shi ne cewa ba ma ganin manyan canje-canje a cikin buƙatun gabaɗaya (duba Hoto 5).Yawancin (66%) sun bayyana cewa lamarin ya daidaita.Mutane da yawa sun ce suna raguwa (22%) fiye da yadda suke hawa (12%).Idan farashin ya ci gaba da hauhawa, ya kamata masana'antar karafa ta ga ci gaban bukatar.
Tare da duk kyakkyawan fata a kusa da 2023, wani abin da ya ba ni mamaki shine yadda cibiyoyin sabis da masana'antun ke sarrafa kayansu.Ina tsammanin yanzu zan iya cewa 2021 shekara ce ta sake dawowa, 2022 shekara ce ta lalata, kuma 2023 shekara ce ta sake dawowa.Yana iya har yanzu haka.Amma ba game da lambobin ba.Yawancin wadanda suka amsa bincikenmu sun ci gaba da bayar da rahoton cewa suna da hannun jari, tare da adadi mai yawa na ci gaba da zana hannun jari.Kadan ne kawai aka ruwaito hannun jarin gini.
Ƙarfin tattalin arzikin masana'antu a cikin 2023 ya dogara da ko kuma lokacin da muka ga sake sake dawowa.Idan na ɗauki abu ɗaya don in sa ido a cikin 'yan makonni masu zuwa ban da farashi, lokutan jagora, tattaunawar masana'anta, da ra'ayin kasuwa, zai zama hannun jari mai siye.
Kar a manta da yin rajista don taron Tampa Karfe na Fabrairu 5-7.Ƙara koyo kuma yi rajista anan: www.tampasteelconference.com/registration.
Za mu sami manyan jami'ai daga masana'antu a Amurka, Kanada da Mexico, da kuma manyan masana a fannin makamashi, manufofin kasuwanci da geopolitics.Wannan shine lokacin yawon buɗe ido mafi girma a Florida, don haka la'akari da yin ajiyar wuri da wuri-wuri.Babu isassun ɗakunan otal.
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